The 1.6% increase boosted the market capitalization of the HoSE exchange by 130,000 billion VND, bringing it close to 8.5 million billion VND.

The Vietnamese stock market closed the January 6th trading session on a positive note. A strong surge in the afternoon helped the VN-Index jump nearly 28 points to above 1,816 points, officially breaking its all-time high. Trading volume on the HoSE improved, reaching approximately 24,850 billion VND. The 1.6% increase also boosted the HoSE’s market capitalization by 130,000 billion VND, bringing it close to 8.5 million billion VND.

The noteworthy aspect lies not only in the numbers but also in the “quality” of the rally: capital flows are spreading across many stock groups, instead of relying solely on a few leading stocks to drive the index up. In the overall picture, the “Vin group” remains the focal point, with Vinhomes (VHM) and Vincom Retail (VRE) hitting their upper limits, providing strong upward momentum for the index. In addition, the oil and gas sector continues to thrive, while the banking sector also rises in unison, playing a key role as the main driving force.

In fact, the VN-Index had been hovering around its peak for many months, constantly testing its limits but failing to create a truly “convincing” breakthrough. The breakout on January 6th therefore carries significant meaning: the market not only saw a strong increase in points but also demonstrated a clearer spread of capital flow as many stock groups performed well, making the surpassing 1,800 points no longer solely the story of a single leading group.

From a broader perspective, historical statistics also show that stock markets tend to have a favorable start in the first few weeks of the year. Specifically, the Vietnamese stock market usually has a positive start in the first quarter of 2025 and the first trading week of the new year. In the last five years, only the first week of 2025 recorded a decline, while the other four years saw increases. However, these short-term statistics are for reference only.

In the first half of 2026, Mr. Nguyen Tien Dung – Head of Industry and Stock Research Department, MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) – maintained a positive outlook thanks to the “good news at the beginning of the year” effect and the possibility of the Vietnamese stock market officially being upgraded after the intermediate review in March. Accordingly, the VN-Index could aim for the 1,860 point level in the first half of the year.

On the other hand, from a more optimistic perspective, if price fluctuations are positive and the VIN group continues to thrive, Mr. Nguyen Duc Khang – Head of Securities Analysis Department at Pinetree – predicts that the VN-Index could reach 2,500 points in 2026.

Regarding liquidity predictions, Mr. Khang believes that the government’s push to disburse public investment and increase the money supply into the system could push market liquidity back to the average level of 40-50 trillion VND per session.

Conversely, while the upgrade from FTSE is a historic milestone, experts believe this factor is unlikely to create a sudden surge in liquidity. Foreign trading accounts for only about 10-15% of total market transactions. Even when considering buying power from ETFs (estimated at around 18,000-20,000 billion VND) and capital inflows from actively managed funds estimated at 3-4 billion USD over the next two years, these figures remain modest compared to the current domestic market strength.

From a practical investment perspective, the expert shared that it’s usually better to focus on monitoring the price levels of key sectors such as banking, real estate, and securities, rather than looking at the VN-Index or VN30 in general.

Also taking an optimistic view, Petri Deryng, head of Pyn Elite Fund, affirmed that the 3,200-point target set by the fund for the VN-Index is entirely feasible within the next three years, based on average corporate profit growth of 18-20% per year. With this growth momentum, the market’s P/E valuation in 2028 will reach a reasonable level of 16 (compared to the current undervalued level).

According to this foreign fund, the biggest driver for the new surge in the Vietnamese stock market comes from the macroeconomic foundation. The target of GDP growth exceeding 10% per year over the next 10-15 years could elevate the size of the economy and the living standards of the people to a higher level. The fund believes that this direction is not only reflected in policy statements but has also been concretized through strong administrative reforms, freeing up enormous resources for the economy.

PYN Elite’s optimism also stems from advancements in the modernization of the capital market. The FTSE’s upgrade of Vietnam to a Secondary Emerging Market last October is the clearest evidence of this. This foreign fund also believes that MSCI will soon take similar action after reforms such as a new trading system, the removal of prefunding requirements, and the implementation of a central clearing model (CCP) are completed.

How to avoid “psychological traps” when investing

The market is constantly fluctuating, and even with the VN-Index rising, making profits is never easy. Therefore, building a proactive investment strategy for 2026 still needs to adhere to the following principles:

According to Pinetree experts, psychological states such as fear during market corrections or FOMO (fear of missing out) during bull runs are natural human reactions. Instead of trying to completely eliminate them – which is almost impossible – investors should learn to identify and manage them to a moderate degree.

To avoid falling into “psychological traps,” this expert recommends that each individual develop and strictly adhere to a unique investment principle. When stock prices fall, instead of panicking, investors should ask themselves: Does the original reason for buying still exist? Is the market overreacting? Answering these questions will help investors maintain composure in the face of short-term fluctuations.

Furthermore, Mr. Khang particularly emphasized the importance of stop-loss discipline to avoid getting bogged down in excessively large losses. A common paradox in the market is that investors often have a tendency to “take profits too early” but are too patient, wanting to give more time to losing investments. He asserted that this is not the right mindset in the long term.

Ultimately, a well-structured investment system is the strongest barrier to eliminating emotional bias, helping investors remain calmer in the face of market volatility.

Ngoc Ly

Market rhythm